城市旅游地生命周期的系统动态模型  

THE SYSTEM DYNAMIC MODEL FOR URBAN TOURIST DESTINATION CYCLE OF EVOLUTION

作　　者：徐红罡[1] 郑海燕 保继刚[1] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学旅游发展与规划研究中心,广州510275 [2]深圳市福田区统计局,深圳518038

出　　处：《人文地理》2005年第5期66-69,19,共5页Human Geography

摘　　要：对城市旅游和旅游地生命周期的概念进行了分析和界定,在评述国内外相关研究成果的基础上,提出了一般城市旅游地生命周期的研究框架,并论述了系统动力学方法对于旅游地生命周期研究的适用性和有效性,构建了一般城市旅游地旅游发展的系统动态模型,解释了旅游地发展的系统内部结构和各要素的作用机制。Life cycle theory of the tourism destination proposed by Butler has been widely used in tourism research, However, many researchers also pointed out that the suitability and validity of the model is limited only to the isolated destinations, such as the island. The complexity of the urban tourism destination makes it impossible to apply the life cycle model. The metropolitan have the capacity to generate a series chain of tourism products. It is therefore quite common to observe the growth and decline of one particular kind of the tourism products yet similar patterns can be hardly observed for the tourism destinations. A simple system dynamics model is built to examine the various patterns of tourism development in the urban area. The model attempts to understand the interactions of potential tourists, tourist arrival rate, re-visitation and the effectiveness ofadvitisement and the word of mouth with the assumption that there is no environmental capacity of the urban tourism destination. It has been found out that urban tourism destination with only one product can easily generate the life cycle pattern. The parameters, such as the scale of potential tourists, the effectiveness of the word mouth, or the effectiveness of the promotional program do not affect the patterns of the destination behaviour although the rate of change can be different. But when the city becomes dynamic and innovative and a proper supply chain of new tourism products is maintained, therefore the re-visitation rate increases, the tourism development of the urban destination can sustainablely grow.

关 键 词：城市旅游地 旅游地生命周期 系统动力学 系统动态模型 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]