哈尔滨气温增暖倾向和季节循环的年代际差异  

The Warming Trend and Interdecadal Differentia of Seasonal Cycle of Air Temperature in Harbin

作　　者：刘玉莲[1] 吴洪宝[1] 李栋梁[2] 宋丽华[3] 沈永平[2] 张健[3] 刘学华[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学大气科学系,江苏南京210044 [2]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,甘肃兰州730000 [3]黑龙江省气象台,黑龙江哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2005年第5期660-665,共6页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所前沿领域创新项目"中国北方气候转型的事实与成因分析"(2004117)资助

摘　　要：用SSA方法分析了哈尔滨1909-2002年94 a月平均气温距平序列,其气温总的倾向是增温的,升温约1.54 ℃,主要的年代尺度增温时段是1918-1952年升温约0.53 ℃,1971-2002年升温约1.03 ℃,1962-1970年是降温时段.得到的准12个月周期振荡成分反映气温的季节循环有明显年代际差异,大致可分为3个时段:1909-1931年、1932-1983年和1984-2002年.第3时段冬季月份比第1时段高2.3～3.7 ℃,夏季月份比第1时段低约0.2 ℃,第2时段的季节循环接近94 a平均情况.最近20 a哈尔滨最强增温在2～3月.The series ot monthly mean temperature anomaly for the recent 94 years in Harbin is analyzed with SSA. Results show that there is a general warming of about 1.54℃ for the whole period, with a warming of about 0.53℃ from 1918 to 1952, a warming of about 1.03 ℃ from 1971 to 2002 and a cooling from 1962 to 1970. Moreover, there is also a quasi-12-month oscillation periods, showing that the cycle also had an apparent decad-al-scale variety from 1909 to 2002： monthly mean temperature in winter time from 1984 to 2002 was about 2.3～3.7℃ warmer than that from 1909 to 1931, while in summer it was about 0.2℃ colder, and the seasonal cycle from 1932 to 1983 was approximate to the mean level of the 94 years. Also, the maximal increase of air temperature in the recent 20 years in Harbin is in February or March.

关 键 词：哈尔滨气温 奇异谱分析 季节循环 年代际差异 

分 类 号：P423.33[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]