新兴市场汇率政策与外债危机的理论分析  

Exchange Rate Policy and Debt Crises in Emerging Economies

作　　者：罗强[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家外汇管理局

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2005年第9期61-67,共7页Studies of International Finance

摘　　要：本文建立了一个分析汇率政策、财政政策以及外债偿付危机之间关系的模型,考察了汇率水平和汇率变动如何影响政府的短期债务供给和政府偿债策略。本文的分析表明,采取一种可能导致出现债务危机的汇率变动,对于政府而言可能是一种最优选择,而在某些条件下,缺乏汇率政策选择也会使得政府在短期外债水平较低的情况下,无法避免一种因为无法贬值而产生债务拖欠的均衡结果。汇率政策与外债危机的联系机制关键在于产出水平对实际汇率偏离的敏感度以及投资者对汇率变动结果的预期状况。We set up a model intended to capture the interaction between exchange rate policy, fiscal policy, and outright default on foreign-currency denominated debt. We examine how the exchange rate affects the supply of short-term debt. We show that it can be optimal for a government to implement an exchange rate change likely to result in a debt crisis. On the other hand, in certain circumstances, the absence of an exchange rate option can put the government in a no- devaluation and default equilibrium, even with a low level of short-term debt. The elasticity of output to the real exchange rate and the creditors＇ exoectation of the exchange rate change are keys to equilibrium result.

关 键 词：外债危机 汇率政策 财政政策 汇率制度 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]