2005～2010年拉美经济增长趋势分析  

Prospects of the Latin American Economies during 2005～2010

作　　者：谢文泽[1] 刘华义[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所 [2]中国海洋大学法学院

出　　处：《拉丁美洲研究》2005年第5期23-29,39,共8页Journal of Latin American Studies

摘　　要：2005～2010年将是拉美地区新的一轮经济增长周期,年均经济增长率将在2.9%～4.3%之间;投资将大幅度增长,设备更新和厂房改造将是新增投资的重点;进口将以较快的速度增长,中间产品和资本货的进口需求较大;FDI将大量流入拉美地区。整个地区的GDP将超过20000亿美元,进口额超过5000亿美元,形成16000亿美元左右的巨大消费市场,给中国提供更多的机遇。The years between 2005 and 2010 will be a new cycle of growth for the Latin American economies, and growth rate is predicted at 2.9%-4.3%. During this period, more investment will be made, and innovation of the equipment and factory buildings will be the investment focus; imports, including the demand for intermediate and capital goods, will grow at a fairly high rate and surpass the amount of US$500 billion; and, FDI will probably flow into the region in larger amount. The economic size and total consumption are likely to exceed US$ 2 trillion and US$1.6 trillion, respectively. Therefore, the future of the Latin American economies will create a large market for China.

关 键 词：2005~2010年 拉美国家 经济增长趋势 贸易顺差 通货膨胀率 

分 类 号：F116.2[经济管理—国际贸易]