基于模型组合与风险理论的HVDC系统脆弱性评估  

HVDC System Vulnerability Assessment Based on Models Combination and Risk Theory

作　　者：陈为化[1] 江全元[1] 曹一家[1] 韩祯祥[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学电气工程学院,浙江省杭州市310027

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2005年第21期19-24,共6页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划专项资助项目(2004CB217902)中国科学院自动化研究所复杂系统与智能科学重点实验室开放基金资助项目(20030102)。

摘　　要：随着高压直流输电(HVDC)系统的广泛应用,对其安全性的分析成为当前研究的热点之一。针对传统的HVDC系统安全性评估方法不能满足系统规模扩大和电力市场需求的问题,提出了基于模型组合与风险理论的HVDC系统脆弱性评估方法。该方法通过模型组合,得到系统的等效模型,有效地降低了系统的复杂程度。在此基础上,应用风险理论进行评估,得到反映系统安全水平的风险指标,以及反映系统安全水平变化趋势的风险指标灵敏度,结合两者得到反映HVDC系统脆弱性的指标。基于该方法编写了HVDC系统安全性评估软件,其可视化结果为运行人员决策提供了有力支持。基于Manitoba的HVDC系统应用结果表明了该方法的有效性和软件的实用性。With the increasing utilization of HVDC systems, security assessment of HVDC system has become a hot topic. This paper presents a novel vulnerability assessment approach for HVDC system security analysis based on models combination and risk theory. The models of subsystem are combined to obtain the equivalent model of a whole HVDC system, which simplifies the calculation complexity, The risk index is used as an indicator of the level of security, and its sensitivity to a changing system parameter is used as an indicator of its trend. These two indicators are combined to determine the degree of HVDC system vulnerability to contingent disturbances. The risk index reflects the security status of HVDC system. The software completed and its visible results can be used as a simple and accurate indicator of the HVDC system, A case of HVDC system based on Manitoba system is presented to verify the correctness and effectiveness of the approach.

关 键 词：高压直流系统 模型组合 马尔可夫过程 风险 灵敏度 脆弱性评估 

分 类 号：TM721[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]