血吸虫病人群感染危险因素空间关系分析  

Analysis of spatial relations of risk factors to infection rate of schistosomiasis in population

作　　者：陈朝[1] 周晓农[1] 姚振琦 汪天平[3] 杨应进 张世清[3] 吴晓华[1] 王显红[1] 贾铁武[1] 王强[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心寄生虫病预防控制所,上海200025 [2]安徽省当涂县血吸虫病防治站 [3]安徽省寄生虫病防治研究所

出　　处：《中国血吸虫病防治杂志》2005年第5期324-327,共4页Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control

基　　金：联合国儿童基金会/世界银行/联合国开发计划署/世界卫生组织热带病研究与培训特别规划处资助(A30298)

摘　　要：目的探讨影响安徽省当涂县血吸虫病人群感染的自然因素,为制定血吸虫病防治策略提供依据。方法收集2001～2004年当涂县114个历史流行村血吸虫病人群感染、耕牛感染和钉螺分布资料,应用PCI、ENVI、ArcGIS软件从SPOT5卫星图像中提取当涂县水系分布矢量图并建立空间数据库,用秩回归分析变量间的空间分布关系。结果90%的现有流行村分布于距水系距离<1404m的范围内。钉螺感染率(x1)、耕牛感染率(x2)、历史流行村距水系的距离(x3)均与人群感染率(y)相关,用逐步秩回归法建立的方程为:y=42.19079+0.29026x1+0.45365x2-0.47765x3。3个因素中对人群感染率的影响程度最大的为历史流行村距水系的距离,耕牛感染率的影响次之,钉螺感染率的影响最低。3个因素可以解释人群感染率总变异的60.5%。结论应加强通江河道附近地区的预防控制措施,防止人群血吸虫感染。Objective To explore the risk factors of schistosomiasis and in order to provide the evidences for schistosomiasis control. Methods The data of infected population, infected cattle and infected snail distribution in 114 villages from 2001-2004 were collected, and the vector layer of water distributions in Dangtu County was extracted from SPOT5 satellite image by PCI and ENVI. Spatial dataset was created by ArcGIS, and the rank regression model was established by SAS to analyze the spatial relationship among variables. Results Ninety percent of the epidemic villages （where the population infection rate was over 0） were located in areas where the distance to water sources was less than 1 404 meters. The rank regression model between the population infected rate （y） and the snail infected rate （x1）, the cattle infected rate （x2）, the distance from villages to water sources （x3） was： y=42.190 79＋0. 290 26x1＋0.453 65x2-0.477 65x3 Among the three factors, the distance to water acted as the most important role on the population infection rate, and the second was the cattle infected rate, and the third was the snail infected rate. The three factors could explain 60.5% of the whole variation of the population infection rate. Conclusion More attention should be paid on the villages which were close to rivers to prevent people from infection.

关 键 词：人群感染率 水系分布 缓冲区 回归模型 地理信息系统 

分 类 号：R532.21[医药卫生—内科学]