新疆天山山区人工增雨试验效果评价  

The Effect Evaluation for Precipitation Enhancement Experiment in Tianshan Mountains of Xinjiang

作　　者：高子毅[1] 张建新[1] 廖飞佳[1] 林柯[2] 

机构地区：[1]新疆人工影响天气办公室,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [2]乌鲁木齐市气象局,新疆乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《高原气象》2005年第5期734-740,共7页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：科技部2000年社会公益项目"新疆天山山区人工增水综合技术研究"资助

摘　　要：根据历史水文资料,对统计变量的选择和排序进行研究,提出了一个选择按连续方式排序的旬流量作为统计变量进行人工增雨效果评价的新方法.结果表明,乌鲁木齐河流域在区域回归试验中,可在9年的试验期内,以0.05的统计显著性水平检测出仅为历史期平均流量4.3%的人工增雨效果,明显提高了统计检验的功效.应用这一方法,对1994-2002年夏季6～8月在新疆天山山区乌鲁木齐河流域进行人工增雨试验的效果做了检验,得出增雨期间乌鲁木齐河平均流量增长3.5%,统计显著性水平0.035;降雨量增长19.9%,显著性水平0.005.Based on the historical hydrology data, a study on the section and the arrangement of statistical variable have been conducted, and a new evaluation method was proposed. As statistical variable, the average ten-day period flow which have been arranged in the light continuous way was adopted. Pre-evaluation result of the regional regression experiment shown that a seeding effect only accounted for amount to 4.3% of average flow in historical period can be tested, with a significant level of 0.05 during a 9-year experiment period. The efficacy of statistical test is improved significantly. The statistical evaluation was accomplished for artificial rainfall experiment in Urǖmqi River basin of Tianshan mountains of Xinjiang during summer from 1994 to 2002. The continuous arranged average ten-day period flow and month precipitation were selected as statistical variable. The results indicated a 3.5 % increase in average flow with significance level of 0. 035 and a 19.9% increase in average precipitation with significance level of 0. 005.

关 键 词：人工增雨 统计检验 径流 

分 类 号：P481[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]