汇率目标区理论在我国的应用前景  

Application of the Theory of Exchange Rate Target Zone In China

作　　者：王相宁[1] 花长劲[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术大学统计与金融系,安徽合肥230026

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2005年第5期112-116,共5页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：中国科学院留学经费择优支持回国工作基金(20011108222051);教育部留学回国人员启动资金

摘　　要：本文从扩大人民币汇率浮动范围的角度出发,考察了汇率目标区理论以及Edwards的基本因素模型对确定目标区中心汇率的贡献,并结合我国1986-2003年间宏观经济基本因素和人民币实际汇率走势,用基本因素模型建立了与我国实情相应的均衡汇率模型。得出的结论是:影响人民币均衡汇率的主要基本因素有全要素生产率、对外偿债能力和政府支出,这与我国区域广阔、国内资本市场不发达以及政府在经济发展中占主导地位的特点是一致的;因此,在人民币汇率改革中可以考虑汇率目标区,并使用类似的基本因素模型来确定基准汇率和目标区边界;在目前条件下,±5%的变动幅度是可以接受的。From the aspect of widening the fluctuation band, this paper reviews the theory of exchange rate target zones and researches the contribution of the Edwards＇ fundamentals model to the decision of the central parity of the target zones. By using macroeconomic fundamentals of China in 1986 - 2003 and the trend of the real exchange rate of RMB, we construct an equilibrium exchange rate model that corresponds to Chinese current conditions. The conclusion is that the fundamentals which affect the RMB equilibrium exchange rate are total factor productivity, the ratio of the net debts to GDP and the government consumption. This is consistent with the fact of the broadness of China, the underdevelopment of the capital market of China and the dominant status of government in economic development. So, the exchange rate target zone may be considered in the reform of RMB exchange rate system and the fundamentals model can be used to determine the central parity and the margins of the target zones. Under current conditions in China, the width of ± 5 % of the fluctuation band is acceptable.

关 键 词：国际金融 人民币汇率 汇率目标区 均衡实际汇率 ADF检验 协整分析 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]