东江流域降雨径流变化趋势及其原因分析  

Study on Rainfall and Runoff Change Tendancy and Its Causes in East River Valley

作　　者：石教智[1] 陈晓宏[1] 吴甜[1] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学水资源与环境系,广东广州510275

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2005年第5期8-10,共3页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：广东省自然科学基金资助项目(04009805)

摘　　要：采用Kendall秩次相关分析方法和回归分析方法,对东江流域1956年以来历年逐月长系列降雨径流资料进行分析研究,结果显示:东江流域降雨径流变化过程关系密切,但两者变化趋势因受自然与人工二元因素作用而表现出一定的差异;降雨径流二者相关性有随着年代推移而减弱的趋势,径流愈来愈受到人类活动的影响,径流与降雨的相关关系更为复杂。Combined with the latest outcome of water resource districts partition in Guangdong province, this paper applies the Kendall analysis and regression analysis to analyze the monthly data of rainfall and runoff from 1956 to 2000 in the East River Valley. The results show that the changes of rainfalland runoff are in affinity, but there are some differences between the two change tendencies. The natural-artificial two-term factors contributed to these differences. Also, the correlation between rainfall and runoff has a tendency to drop with years. The runoff is more influenced by human activities and the rainfall-runoff relationship is more complicated.

关 键 词：降雨径流 变化趋势 相关分析 人类活动 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]