春季低温阴雨中期预报系统  

The Medium-range Forecasting System of Microtherm and Excessive Rain in Spring

作　　者：马德贞[1] 林玉成[1] 李晓东[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心,中国气象科学研究院

出　　处：《气象》1996年第3期43-47,共5页Meteorological Monthly

摘　　要：该系统是以数值预报产品为基础而建立的春季低温阴雨中期预报业务系统。系统含较完善的低温阴雨和连晴天过程资料，采用逐步回归、逐步判别、相似预报等方法，将数值预报产品与天气学原理及预报员经验相结合，实现了从资料采集到预报制作自动化和客观化。系统采用模块结构和批处理技术，操作简便，资料和图形显示快捷。经３年试报结果表明，系统对春季低温阴雨有较强的预报能力，在实际预报服务中取得显著的社会经济效益。ased on the NWP products, the medium--range operational .forecasting system of a microtherm and excessive rain in spring is established. The system includes detailed data of the microtherm and excessive rain as well as continuous fine days. It uses successive regression,successive discrimination and analog method to combine NWP products with synoptic principles andforecasting experiences. The system can collect data and make prediction automatically and objectively. Every part of the system is independent. The system uses batch processing technique andcan be operated easily,and it displays data and figures rapidly.The results of the experiments in the last three years show that the system has better abilities in forecasting rnicrotherm and excessive rain. Obviously social and economic benefits havebeen obtained in the practical forecasting operation.

关 键 词：春季 低温 天气预报 中期预报 

分 类 号：P457[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]