西北太平洋热带气旋中期路径的统计释用综合预报模式  

A SYNTHETIC STATISTICAL INTERPRETATION SCHEMEFOR MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST OF TROPICALCYCLONE MOTION OVER NORTHWESTPACIFIC OCEAN

作　　者：钟元 李泓 

机构地区：[1]浙江省气象科学研究所

出　　处：《海洋预报》1996年第2期17-28,共12页Marine Forecasts

摘　　要：提出一个热带气旋中期路径的统计释用综合预报模式。该模式应用ＴＣ参数，初始时刻及未来时刻的环境场参数和导出因子，构造了多种中期天气时空尺度的预报因子；应用数值天气预报产品的统计释用技术和多种分类预报模式的综合集成，构造了ＴＣ中期路径的客观定量预报模式。In this paper, a synthetic medium-range forecasting model for tropical cyclone motion using statistical interpretation technique is developed. Using the parameterTC, the initial and future environmenfal fields and other denned oactors, many predictors for medium-range time andspace scale are constructed. By using preductes of nemerical weather prediction and statisticalinterpretation technique. A prediction scheme for TC medium-range motion is formed. Forecasting results indicated that this scheme is efficacious.

关 键 词：热带气旋 中期路径 综合预报模式 西北太平洋 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]