尚义县气候资源生产潜力及其耕地人口承载力研究  

Study on potential productivity of climatic resource and population supporting capacity of cropland in Shangyi county

作　　者：唐冲[1] 马礼[1] 杜淑焕[1] 魏爱青[1] 

机构地区：[1]首都师范大学北京市资源环境与地理信息系统重点实验室,北京100037

出　　处：《农业系统科学与综合研究》2005年第4期283-287,共5页System Sciemces and Comprehensive Studies In Agriculture

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40071039);北京市教委科研项目(KM200310028113);首都师范大学实验室开放基金项目

摘　　要：分别用迈阿密模型和matharnthwaite Memorial模型对尚义县的粮食气候生产潜力在分区的基础上做了计算,得出尚义县的气候生产潜力整体大致在2 493.58kg/hm2～2 960.88kg/hm2之间,而其利用率在正常年份仅有46.9%,具有较大的增产潜力.并以耕地-粮食-人口为主线对尚义县的耕地人口承载力作了短期预测,指出现阶段尚义县的温饱水平在很大程度上是依靠国家的政策补助达到的,政策取消后,2010年尚义县会面临大量的粮食短缺.粮食生产达到温饱水平是尚义县经济正常发展的基础,必须围绕这一目标制定一系列政策.表4,参13.This paper use two models, Miami model and Thamthwaite Memorial model, to estimate cropland potential productivity of climatic resource in Shangyi county. The calculation shows that the potential productivity in Shangyi varies between 2 493.58kg/hm^2 to 2 960.88kg/hm^2, and the actual productivity only accounts for 46.9% of potential productivity.Basing on the relations among cropland, food, and population, and according to the prediction of cropland and population, we calculate the population supporting capacity of cropland in 2005 and 2010.It indicates that the food supply can meet people＇ s need at the help of national subsidy at present, if this assistance from government called off in the next years, people in Shangyi would face a great shortage of food in 2010.

关 键 词：生产潜力 承载力 耕地 粮食 尚义县 

分 类 号：S162.5[农业科学—农业气象学]