Prediction of the Hualian Earthquakes in Taiwan and an Extended Discussion on the Method of Commensurability  

台湾花莲地震预测与“可公度”方法的引伸性讨论(英文)

作　　者：胡辉[1] 韩延本[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院国家天文台云南天文台,昆明650011 [2]中国科学院国家天文,北京100012

出　　处：《Applied Geophysics》2005年第3期194-196,F0003,共4页应用地球物理（英文版）

基　　金：This work was supported by the Nation’s Natural Science Found of China (No.10373017) and the Chinese Astronomical Committee Foundation.

摘　　要：The method of commensurability was used by the authors to predict the great earthquake of magnitude 7.5 that occurred on March 31,2002 in Taiwan 70km away from Hualian. Analyzing the earthquakes of magnitude≥7.0 which occurred in the Hualian area of Taiwan within the 20th century, the authors discovered that the occurrences of the earthquakes are commensurable. The earthquakes of magnitude 7.6 which occurred in Hualian of Taiwan, on September 20th, 1999 and of magnitude 7.5 which occurred 70 km away from Hualian, on March 31th, 2002 appeared at the commensurable point of K=2 and the period times the golden section, respectively. An extended discussion is carried out on the method of commensurability and its implied physical significance, especially on the contribution of the commensurable periodic extension made by Prof. Weng Wenbo.“可公度”方法是我们在1999年9月21日台湾7.6级大震预报中引用的主要方法,为此本文结合其具体分析,和针对“可公度”方法所隐含的物理意义,尤其是翁文波先生对“可公度周期性扩张”的贡献,结合实例进行了隐伸性的讨论。其中涉及“可公度”方法由提丢斯和波特“平均运动”的天体运行,和翁文波以“信息确定性”发展为“周期性扩张”的特殊性信息的周期性,并可用于自然灾害的预测;及其“信息保真性”不同于数量的意义和作法等所涉及的观念的变革性。

关 键 词：information determinacy COMMENSURABILITY and extension of periodicity 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]