对水利工程经济评价中风险概率计算方法的探讨  

EXPLORATION OF THE RISK PROBABILITY CALCULATION OF THE ECONOMIC EVALUATION FOR HYDRAULIC PROJECT

作　　者：戚红祥[1] 王湘生[1] 

机构地区：[1]南昌大学

出　　处：《江西水利科技》1996年第1期18-31,共14页Jiangxi Hydraulic Science & Technology

摘　　要：从介绍风险概率计算的基本概念出发，阐述一次二阶矩法，逐步由线性函数、正态分布拓展到非线性函数，非正态及非完整分布．对蒙特卡洛法的应用也作了介绍．对各种计算方法作了简要评述．并配有水利工程经济评价中风险概率计算的例题．From the elementary concept, this paper progressively explains the First-order second-moment method, linear function, normal distribution, and develops to the nonlinear funtion, non-normal, non-complete distribution and, moreover, the application of the Monto Carlo method is recommended. Finally, the various calculating methods have been reviewed. Some examples of the risk probability calculation of the economic evaluation for hydraulic project are disposed.

关 键 词：水利工程 风险概率 计算方法 

分 类 号：F426.9[经济管理—产业经济]