新形势下中国耕地总量动态平衡分析  

Dynamic Equilibrium of the Total Cultivated Land in China in a New Situation

作　　者：王秀芬[1] 陈百明[1] 毕继业[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 [2]中国土地勘测规划院,北京100035

出　　处：《资源科学》2005年第6期28-33,共6页Resources Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金"农业资源利用效率及其优化管理设计(编号:70473102)"

摘　　要：保护耕地已成为我国的一项基本国策。自1996年以来,我国实行了耕地动量动态平衡的土地管理政策,但耕地资源数量减少和质量下降的趋势并未得到有效的控制,耕地总量也未能实现动态平衡。基于上述现状,本文界定了新形势下耕地总量动态平衡的内涵,提出了评价耕地总量动态平衡的指标———动态平衡指数,运用这一综合指标分省市评价了中国目前耕地总量动态平衡现状,结果表明:从1996年到2002年的7年之间,实现耕地总量动态平衡的省市从13个减少为7个,由此看出中国耕地总量动态平衡的严峻形势。在此基础上对中国耕地总量动态平衡的时空差异进行了分析。最后针对中国不可改变的耕地持续减少和人口稳步增长的国情,提出新形势下寻求新的耕地总量动态平衡点的对策措施。Cultivated land plays an important role both in agricultural development and in economic development of China. Cultivated land protection has been regarded as a basic national policy of China. In order to solve the increasing problems of cultivated land resource shortage and food security in China, a land management policy of dynamic equilibrium of the total cultivated land has been implemented since 1996. However, the fierce trend of cultivated land resources＇ quantity decrease and quality degradation is still out of control. Based on the severe condition of dynamic equilibrium of the total cultivated land and the land resources change tendency in China, this paper defines the connotation of dynamic equilibrium of the total cultivated land in new situation from the new perspective, pointes out that the dynamic equilibrium of the total cultivated land is a systems engineering, this system includes at least three subsystems, namely cultivated land subsystem, population subsystem and output of per unit area subsystem, these three subsystems must be compatible. Then this paper establishes the dynamic equilibrium index which is used to evaluate the dynamic equilibrium of the total cultivated land. The status quo of dynamic equilibrium of the total cultivated land is evaluated by the dynamic equilibrium index, the evaluation results indicate that the number of provinces which have realized the dynamic equilibrium of the total cultivated land decreased from 13 to 7. This reflects the severe situation of cultivated land further. Furthermore, the spatial-temporal differences of dynamic equilibrium of the total cultivated land in China are analyzed, the analysis results indicate that both the quantity of cultivated land area and the quantity of grain-sown area are decreasing in most of provinces; the population of our country will be inevitably increasing in the next decade; the output of per unit area in 17 provinces has increased in the past 7 years, but the average output of per unit area of the whole country is s

关 键 词：耕地 动态平衡 动态平衡指数 中国 

分 类 号：F323.211[经济管理—产业经济]