城市交通出行方式对能源与环境的影响  

Urban Travel Modal Split and Its Impact on Energy and Environment

作　　者：黄成[1] 陈长虹[1] 王冰妍[1] 戴懿[2] 赵静[2] 王海鲲[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海市环境科学研究院,上海200233 [2]华东理工大学,上海200237

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2005年第11期163-166,共4页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

基　　金：美国能源基金会(G-0309-0794)

摘　　要：社会经济的快速增长使得人们的出行日益频繁,从而导致城市机动车保有量迅速增加和能源需求及其大气污染排放不断上升。本文以上海为例,应用LEAP模型,研究了在确保交通需求增长的前提下,发展不同的交通出行方式对能源需求和大气污染物排放的影响。结果表明,调整上海市交通发展模式,即有序发展私人交通、大力发展公共交通对于减少全市道路交通能源需求,减缓供应压力,降低大气污染排放具有重要意义。The rapid growth of social economy makes more travel activities for residents, so urban road transport demand increases year by year.Correspondingly, energy demand, road traffic and air pollutant emissions are continuously rising.The paper, taking Shanghai as an example, applies LEAP model to investigate the impact of travel modal split shift on the energy demand and air pollutant emissions as economy and transport demand grow annually. The results show that after the shift of the travel modal split, the transport energy demand will decrease by 18%; CO, NOx and HC emissions will cut by 23%, 13% and 26% respectively.In a word, the shift of the urban travel modal split, namely, properly limitying car travel and greatly improving public service will be of sreat significance to control total road transport energy demand and air pollutant emissions in Shanghai.

关 键 词：交通方式 能源需求 大气污染 LEAP模型 情景分析 

分 类 号：U491.12[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]