我国小麦白粉病发生流行的长期气象预测研究  

Long-term meteorological prediction research on epidemic of wheat powdery mildew in China

作　　者：钱拴 霍治国[2] 叶彩玲[2] 

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心,北京100081 [2]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2005年第4期56-63,共8页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家"十五"科技攻关项目(2004BA509B01)

摘　　要：确定了影响我国小麦白粉病发病流行的9项关键环流特征因子指标,其中4项较好地表征了我国小麦白粉病发病面积轻、偏轻、偏重、重4个级别的气候特征。以关键环流特征因子距平为预测因子,建立的上年10月初、当年4月初制作预报的2个全国小麦白粉病发病面积距平预测模式历史拟合效果较好,对2004年的外延预报准确率分别达87.5%和98.2%。通过分析关键大气环流特征因子对我国小麦白粉病发生流行的可能影响机制,发现前期关键环流特征因子对我国小麦白粉病的发生流行具有很好的气候背景指示效应。Nine key atmospheric circulation characteristic factors indices affecting epidemic of wheat powdery mildew in China are determined, and in which 4 key circulation characteristic factors indices can indicate obviously climate characteristics of various epidemic areas degrees in light, a little light, a little severe and severe. The 2 epidemic area prediction models which can be used at the beginning of last October and April are established. The historical simulated results from 1975 to 2003 are good, and the extrapolated prediction accuracies of the 2 prediction models for 2004 can achieve 87.5% and 98.2%. The key atmospheric circulation characteristic factors have very good climate background indications of epidemic of wheat powdery mildew in China, through analyzing their possible influence.

关 键 词：小麦白粉病 大气环流 关键特征因子 距平 长期气象预测 

分 类 号：S435.121.46[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]