中国人口发展与能源供应保障探讨  

Population Growth and Energy Security in China

作　　者：张雷[1] 蔡国田[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101

出　　处：《中国软科学》2005年第11期11-17,共7页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(编号:90210037)

摘　　要：作为现代社会发展中最具公用性特征的资源,能源的供应保障状态始终是现代国家和地区人口发展的必要资源基础和充分物质条件。未来20-30年是中国现代化发展的关键时期,在这个时期内,中国人口的增长将逼近峰值水平,全国人均财富的占有水平将达到中等发达国家的标准。要想实现国家现代化的发展目标,中国必须面对来自国家自身资源环境基础脆弱的严峻挑战,其中一个关键的问题就是能源供应保障的安全。通过对世界和中国人口发展与能源消费的关系研究,本文提出中国必须继续实施严格的计划生育政策及最大限度实现资源国际化等建议。Energy supply, as a determinant factor to the modern society, has become an increasingly sensitive issue in China when the country has been making great strides in modernizing itself, and it could become even more sensitive in the next twenty to thirty years when China＇s population growth and economic development put stress on the national energy supply system continuingly. Based on the interrelationship between population growth, economic development and energy supply of the practices from both the domestic and international, this paper suggests that a more strict population control policy and a wider opening - up energy supply system could be needed for China＇s sustainable development in the future.

关 键 词：人口发展 能源供应保障 

分 类 号：F407.2[经济管理—产业经济] C92-05[社会学—人口学]