典型判别分析方法在厄尔尼诺事件检验中的应用  

The Application of Typical Analysis Method in the EL Nino Events

作　　者：林玎[1] 谢国伟 刘伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林建筑工程学院基础科学系,长春130021 [2]上海永圣房地产有限公司,上海200065

出　　处：《吉林建筑工程学院学报》2005年第4期51-54,共4页Journal of Jilin Architectural and Civil Engineering

摘　　要：厄尔尼诺现象是影响全球气候异常和地质灾害频发的主要因素,关于厄尔尼诺现象及其对天气和气候的影响,已成为近年来海洋、气象和地质灾害科研中的重要课题.因此,研究其发生规律与预测方法十分必要.笔者对厄尔尼诺事件多因素成因进行了分析,并利用典型判别分析方法,对1973年-1986年发生的厄尔尼诺事件进行了检验,检验的准确率为85.7%.EL Nino phenomenon is the main factor that affects global climate abnormity and frequent occurrences of geological disasters. The EL Nino phenomenon and its influences on the weather and climate have become an important topic in the reseach of ocean, weather and geological disasters. As a result, it is necessary to reseach the rules and forecasting methods. This paper analyzes the causes of the EL Nino events, and examines the EL Nino events happened in 1973 - 1986 with the method of typical analysis. The rate of accuracy is 85.7 %.

关 键 词：厄尔尼诺 日食 海温 海冰 地震 典型判别分析 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]