煤层渗透率统计预测方法  

The approach on statistic predict of coal permeability

作　　者：董敏涛[1] 张新民[1] 郑玉柱[1] 张培河[1] 

机构地区：[1]煤炭科学研究总院西安分院,陕西西安710054

出　　处：《煤田地质与勘探》2005年第6期28-31,共4页Coal Geology & Exploration

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展规划项目"中国煤层气技术可采资源潜力及分布"课题(编号:2002CB11706)资助

摘　　要：以沁水盆地和鄂尔多斯盆地为例,本文运用线性回归分析方法,建立了煤储层试井渗透率和埋深之间的回归方程。相关系数检验结果表明,该回归方程具有显著性。运用此回归方程便可确定未勘探区煤储层试井渗透率的变化范围。根据历史拟合的煤层渗透率与试井测试的煤层渗透率之间的比较关系,针对具体煤层气田(藏)确定出一个合理的比例关系,再乘以由回归方程得出的试井渗透率预测值,从而可确定出较为真实的煤层渗透率值,供煤层气可采资源量计算使用。In this paper it takes the Qinshui Basin and Ordos Basin as an example to establish a regression equation between well testing permeability and depth of coal seam by the linearity regression analysis. Using the regression equation, it can be ascertained the variety ranges of the permeability on the location that have not been explored. By comparing the permeability obtained from history matching approach with the one obtained from well testing, and then contraposing a material coalfield, a reasonable scale correlation can be ascertained, multiplied by the predictive permeability of well testing by regression equation, thereby we try to ascertain a relative reality permeability. The permeability can be used in calculating the coalbed methane resources.

关 键 词：煤层渗透率 线性回归分析 回归方程 煤层气井 生产历史拟合 

分 类 号：P618.11[天文地球—矿床学]