我国机动化趋势分析  

Analysis of Motorization Trends in China

作　　者：王献香[1] 林航飞[1] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学交通运输工程学院,上海200092

出　　处：《交通与运输》2005年第B07期43-46,共4页Traffic & Transportation

摘　　要：以北京和上海为例介绍了我国机动车发展概况及拥有水平,然后以机动车拥有量的历史数据为基础,利用灰色模型对我国远景年的机动车拥有量进行了预测,最后在预测结果的基础上提出了我国机动车发展政策。In this paper, it introduces the development of motor vehicle and the level of motor vehicle ownership in China. Beijing and Shanghai were given as examples. Then the motor vehicle ownership in future years was forecasted. In forecasting, the grey system model was adopted and the datum over the years were used. Then the consequence was gained. Finally this paper gave the policy analysis conclusion of the motor vehicle developing.

关 键 词：机动车 保有量 预测 灰色模型 发展政策 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]