闽北地区早稻穗颈瘟的气象预测模型及其应用  

Forecasting model on meteorology relating to the early-season rice panicle blast in the north of Fujian and its application

作　　者：陈家豪[1] 关瑞峰 徐宗焕[3] 陈家文[4] 余建晖[1] 孔丽萍 黄岩彬 

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学,福建福州350002 [2]福建省植保植检站,福建福州355003 [3]福建省气象科学研究所,福建福州355001 [4]莆田华侨职业中专学校,福建莆田351117 [5]古田县气象局,福建古田352201

出　　处：《福建农林大学学报（自然科学版）》2005年第4期409-411,共3页Journal of Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：福建省科技厅资助项目(98-Z-101)

摘　　要：搜集闽北地区浦城和建瓯2个县(市)21 a(1980-2000年)中与早稻发生穗颈瘟相关的气象因子,采用逐步回归统计方法,对相关的气象因子进行筛选,找出引起早稻穗颈瘟的关键气象预测因子,其中浦城县的气象预测因子为5月上旬的水汽压、3月中旬的日照时数;建瓯市的气象预测因子为3月中旬的相对湿度和4月中旬的露日数。并建立了两地利用气象因子预测早稻穗颈瘟的数学模型。对该模型进行了2 a的预测验证,分别对两地2003年早稻穗颈瘟的发生进行预测,预测结果与实际穗颈瘟发生情况一致,发生等级均为轻.The key meteorological factors relating to the early-season rice panicle blast in Pueheng and Jianou of the north of Fujian in 21 a （from 1980 to 2000） were screened out by stepwise multiple regress. The meteorological forecasting factors of Pucheng county were as follows ： atmospheric pressure in the first ten days of May （X42） and sunshine hours in the middle ten days of March （X49）. The meteorological forecasting factors of Jianou town were relative humidity in the middle ten days of March （ X43 ） and dew days in the middle ten days of April （ X64 ）. Then mathematical model on forecasting the early-season rice panicle blast happened in the two sites were developed and validated. At last, the result of forecasting the early-season rice panicle blast by the model in 2003 was consistent with the practical one.

关 键 词：早稻 穗颈瘟 气象因子 预测模型 闽北地区 

分 类 号：S165.28[农业科学—农业气象学]