软件项目的模糊风险评估及风险控制  

Fuzzy risk assessment and risk control of the software project

作　　者：赵冬梅[1] 吴敬[1] 陈霄凯[1] 张磊[1] 

机构地区：[1]河北师范大学信息技术学院,河北石家庄050016

出　　处：《河北省科学院学报》2005年第4期44-47,共4页Journal of The Hebei Academy of Sciences

基　　金：河北省科技发展计划项目(042135127);河北省教育厅科研计划项目(2004446)

摘　　要：介绍了软件项目中风险评估及风险控制的概念和一般过程。对软件项目提出了一种综合风险评估方法。采用AHP方法与模糊逻辑法相结合的方法进行风险评估,并根据软件项目管理的实际情况对AHP方法与模糊逻辑法进行了改造。应用模糊逻辑法对各因素的评判不是直接评价其重要度,而是将各风险因素从概率方面、从影响方面、从不可控制性方面分别进行评判。先用AHP方法将风险评估分为三层,在确定第三层各风险因素的排序权向量时采用模糊逻辑法。最后利用AHP方法求出各风险因素的综合风险权重。在确定了项目的风险,并作出了评估和排序后,对这些风险采取适当的方法进行有效的风险控制。The concept and general procedure of risk assessment and risk control in software project is introduced. A comprehensive risk assessment method is introduced to the estimation of the, software project. The method, which combines AHP method and fuzzy logical method, is applied to the risk assessment. AHP method and Fuzzy logical method are altered according to the actual condition of the management of software project, Applying Fuzzy logical method, the important degree of each actor is jurdged in the aspects of the probability, the influence and uncontrollability, not judged immediately. The risk assessment is carved up 3 layers applying AHP method, the sort weight of the third layer calculated by Fuzzy logical method. Finally, the comprehensive risk weight is calculated by AHP method. After deciding the project risk and sorting them, the risk of software effectively by some proper methods can be controlled.

关 键 词：软件项目 风险评估 风险控制AHP法 模搠逻辑法 

分 类 号：TP393[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]