动力延伸预报产品释用方法的改进试验  

IMPROVED EXPERIMENT ON THE EXPLANATION AND ANALYSIS METHOD OF DYNAMICAL EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PRODUCTS

作　　者：江双五[1] 田红[2] 陈丽娟[3] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学大气科学系,南京210093 [2]安徽省气象台,合肥230061 [3]国家气候中心中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《应用气象学报》2005年第6期779-786,共8页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：中国气象局预测减灾应用技术开发推广项目"T63月动力延伸预报解释应用技术面向省级短期气候预测业务的推广";安徽省气象局2005年度科技带头人专项"安徽汛期旱涝气候变化及预测研究"共同资助

摘　　要：依据动力延伸预报产品释用方法中所建立的月降水距平百分率预报方程,将方程系数看成是动态系数,采用与预报月高度场相似月份的资料作为样本资料,通过改善方程系数的计算来提高月降水预报.1998～2004年的历史实况资料在安徽省的回报实验证明:在目前T63/NCC月动力延伸预报产品的准确率不能快速提高的情况下,该方法具有实际应用价值.利用T63/NCC月动力延伸产品进行安徽省月降水预报应用亦取得较好的效果.Based on a relationship between monthly precipitation anomaly and monthly circulation, the forecast equation coefficients are calculated as variables. The sample data are selected fi＇om which has similar potential height field to that in the forecast month. The monthly rainfall forecasts is improved by calculating the equation coefficients. The latest seven-year hindcast tests proves that the method of calculating of coefficients has certain value in operational application. Under the consideration of a limited accuracy of T63/NCC monthly dynamical extended-range forecast products（T63/NCC MDERFP）. Also, results are obtained in the application of monthly rainfall forecast of Anhui Province by T63/NCC MDERFP.

关 键 词：月降水预报 动力延伸预报 动态系数 安徽 短期气候预测 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P456.1