浙江省滑波、泥石流气象条件分析及其预报研究  

METEOROLOGICAL CONDITION ANALYSIS AND FORECAST RESEARCH OF LANDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN ZHEJIANG PROVINCE

作　　者：杜惠良 钮学新 殷坤龙[3] 谢剑明[3] 刘礼领[3] 

机构地区：[1]浙江省气象台,浙江杭州310021 [2]浙江省气象科学研究所,浙江杭州310021 [3]中国地质大学,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2005年第6期642-650,共9页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：浙江省科技厅重大攻关项目"浙江省突发性地质灾害预警预报系统及应用示范";重点项目"浙江省暴雨预报系统研究"课题联合资助

摘　　要：根据1949～2001年浙江省淳安、磐安、庆元和永嘉县滑坡、泥石流与降雨量的统计分析,将滑坡泥石流发生区划分成台风影响区和非台风影响区,提出了累计有效降雨量的概念及其计算式,确定了台风影响区和非台风影响区的临界累计有效降雨量。针对滑坡、泥石流应用MM5中尺度预报模式进行本地化研究,研究48小时的雨量预报。经2003年和2004年试报,雨量预报和滑坡、泥石流预测有较好的预报能力。In this article, regions where landslides and debris flows often occur are divided into typhoon-impacting area and non-typhoon-impacting area. Based on the statistical analysis of the landslides, debris flows and precipitation at Chun＇an, Pan＇an, Qingyuan and Yongjia county in Zhejiang province from 1949 to 2001, we bring forward the concept of accumulated effective precipitation and give its calculation formula. Through this formula and the data analysis, critical accumulated effective precipitation in typhoon-impacting area and non-typhoon-impacting area are obtained separately. The mesoscale numerical model MM5 is localized to forecast the accumulated precipitation within 48 hours. And we use the results above to give the forecast of landslides and debris flows. Through trials in plum rain （sustained rain） periods from 2003 to 2004, the results are good.

关 键 词：滑坡 泥石流 气象条件 分析预报 

分 类 号：P694[天文地球—地质学]