长江中下游夏季高温灾害机理及预测  

Study on the Mechanism and Forecasting Method of High Temperature Disaster in Summer in the Large Cities of the Yangtze River Basin

作　　者：张尚印[1] 张德宽[1] 徐祥德[2] 廖要明[1] 沈树勤[3] 尹东屏[3] 

机构地区：[1]国家气候中心开放实验室,北京100081 [2]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [3]江苏省气象台,江苏南京210008

出　　处：《南京气象学院学报》2005年第6期840-846,共7页Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology

基　　金：江苏省气象灾害重点实验室(南京信息工程大学)开放课题(KJS0303);国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(TG1999045700);LCS开放课题(2004C-12)

摘　　要：利用我国1961—2003年夏季(6—8月)高温资料,建立长江中下游地区主要城市强高温及高温过程较完整的时间序列,探讨了该地区主要城市高温气候特征。分析该地区南京、杭州、南昌等城市夏季高温灾害机理,东亚副热带高压是造成长江中下游地区城市夏季高温的主要影响系统。在此基础上用均生函数—最佳子回归集构造预测模型,预测夏季月高温出现日数,通过42 a高温资料预报检验,有较好的预测效果,值得在业务中应用。Based on Monthly high temperature data in summer（JJA） from 1961 to 2003 at Nanjing, Hangzhou and Nanchang stations, quite complete time series of severe high temperature are established, and the climatic characteristics and disaster mechanism of high temperature in these areas are analyzed. The observed data in these areas show that oppressive weather lasted for a long time, extreme high temperature was high, daily average wind speed relatively low and daily average humidity higher during the high temperature process. The subtropical high over East Asia is the main climatic system that induced the summer high temperature disaster in these areas. A forecasting model of high temperature days is established using the methods of mean generating function and optimal subset regression. The varification of the 42 years historical records shows that the model can forecast high temperature in these areas successfully. Therefore it can be applied in climate operation.

关 键 词：长江中下游 高温气候特征 灾害机理 预测 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]