应用多维多箱与高斯模型结合的复合模型预测大气环境质量  

Composite model of multi-dimension multi-box model and gauss model for atmospheric forecasting

作　　者：吴丽芳[1] 程水源[1] 郭秀锐[1] 王海燕[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学环境与能源工程学院,北京100022

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2005年第6期66-69,共4页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家科技部973项目(2005CB724201);北京市自然科学基金项目(8022004)

摘　　要：根据北京市市区自然环境、污染气象特征、大气环境过程及区域污染源分布等现有信息,建立了用于大气环境质量预测的多维多箱与高斯模型结合的复合模型,对北京市市区采暖季(2002年1月)和非采暖季(2002年8月)特征污染物SO2和PM10的质量浓度进行了预测。将预测结果与地面监测值比较分析后发现,多维多箱与高斯模型结合的复合模型预测大气环境质量产生的相对误差在25%以内。This paper aims to apply the composite model of muhi-dimensional multi-box model and Gauss model established for forecasting the characteristic atmospheric contaminations of SO2 and PM10 concentrations to the urban areas of Beijing in heating season （January, 2002） and non-heating season （August, 2002） respectively. As is known, the urban areas of Beijing city suffer from different pollution sources, which heavily influence the natural environment, the meteorological features as well as the process of the atmospheric environment of the capital. The present research is just based on the analysis of the distribution of local pollution sources. We intend to apply the composite model of muhi-dimension multi-box model and Gauss model to predict the atmospheric environment quality of Beijing city just by analyzing the air pollutant diffusion from surface sources. To establish a multi-dimensional multi-box model, we have divided the whole urban area of Beijing city into 30 sub-boxes. Furthermore, the whole urban area of Beijing city is also divided into 3 layers in vertical direction according to the atmospheric mixing height. Next, let the muhi-dimensional multi-box model be divided into 90 sub-boxes including the upper space, and quality-balance equation groups are determined referring four major directions （N, S, E and W） respec- tively. The essential principle for using the muhiimensional and multi-box model is to find the balance of quality in any sub-box established, the distribution characteristics of pollution sources under the atmospheric mixing height, the effects of the physical sediment, chemical transformation, vertical and horizontal diffusion of the air pollutants and the transformation of different meteorological conditions. The establishment of Gauss model is also aimed to predict the air pollutant diffusion from the point sources. Compared with the ground monitoring data, the result gained from using the models indicates that the predicting values obtained by the composite model of muhi-dim

关 键 词：环境工程 多维多箱模型 高斯模型 复合模型 大气环境质量预测 质量平衡 

分 类 号：X83[环境科学与工程—环境工程]