黄河上游梯级水电站滚动开发顺序决策分析  

Decision-making analysis of scrolling development order of cascade hydropower stations on the upstream of the Yellow River

作　　者：夏忠[1] 黄强[1] 赵雪花[2] 

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学水利水电学院 [2]太原理工大学水利科学与工程学院,太原030024

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2005年第6期1-5,共5页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：陕西省重点实验室基金项目(02JS37)

摘　　要：梯级水电站滚动开发的影响因素间关系复杂,给开发顺序决策带来很大的困难。对于滚动开发顺序的研究若仅从单准则和单因素进行定量分析,就易得出片面结论。本文针对黄河上游梯级滚动开发的实际问题,从探讨梯级水电站滚动开发顺序影响因素入手,建立可适应多种决策分析的层次结构模型。然后运用多种方法进行分析,运用电力电量平衡方法论证开发方案的适应性,通过综合分析得到了不同电力需求下的梯级水电滚动开发决策顺序或者可接受的编序。There is the complex relationship between affecting factors of scrolling development order of cascade hydropower stations, which brings a great deal of difficult of decision-making analysis of development order. It can be easily obtained with one-sided conclusion when scrolling development order is quantitatively analyzed only from single criterion and single factor. This paper analyzes the factors of scrolling development order of hydropower stations in combination with the facts of cascade scrolling development on the upper reach of Yellow River, and establishes the hierarchical structure model adaptable to multi-decision analysis, then analyzes them by various methods and demonstrates the adaptability of developing schemes by means of power balance. In the end, the decision-making order of scrolling development of cascade hydropower stations is obtained under different power demands by comprehensive analysis.

关 键 词：滚动开发 层次结构模型 ELECTREⅡ决策法 梯级电站 

分 类 号：TV213.2[水利工程—水文学及水资源]