威布尔分布下失效率的Bayes验证试验方法  

BAYESIAN DEMONSTRATION TEST METHOD FOR FAILURE RATE UNDER WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION

作　　者：陈文华[1] 崔杰[2] 潘骏[3] 周升俊 卢献彪 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学流体传动与控制国家重点实验室,杭州310027 [2]中国航天科工集团公司三院31研究所,北京100074 [3]浙江科技学院机电工程系,杭州310012 [4]杭州航天电子技术有限公司,杭州310015

出　　处：《机械工程学报》2005年第12期118-121,共4页Journal of Mechanical Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(50375142)航天支撑技术基金(2003HTZJDX01)高等学校重点实验室访问学者基金资助项目。

摘　　要：为在尽可能短的试验时间内确定产品可靠性是否达到规定的要求,以Gamma分布为先验分布,以失效率 为验证指标,讨论了Weibull分布下产品可靠性的Bayes验证试验设计方法,以某型航天电连接器为例,制定了 相应的Bayes定时截尾验证试验方案,并对试验方案进行了Monte-Carlo模拟评价。与经典的定时截尾验证试验 方法相比,所建立的Bayes验证试验方案所需的试验时间仅为经典试验方案的45％左右。对试验方案的Monte-Carlo 模拟评价结果表明,后验使用方风险的理论值与实际值基本一致,说明所制定的试验方案能够满足预定的试验要求。In order to make sure whether the reliability of products is satisfied with the provided requirements within testing time as short as possible, it is discussed that Bayesian demonstration testing method on the reliability of products whose life is fitted to Weibull distribution, with Gamma distribution as prior distribution and failure rate as demonstration index. Taken aerospace electrical connectors of certain type for example, Bayesian demonstration testing plan of censoring-Ⅰ is made out and evaluated by Monte-Carlo simulation method. Compared with classical demonstration testing method of censoring-Ⅰ, the time of the Bayesian demonstration testing is only about 45% of the classical one. Via Monte-Carlo simulated evaluation on the testing plan, the result reveals that the value of posterior user＇s risk in theory is basically the same as it in fact. So the testing plan can meet the predestinate requirements of the testing.

关 键 词：WEIBULL分布 失效率 Bayes验证 航天电连接器 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]