某市性病流行特征及数学模型在发病趋势中的应用  

ANALYSIS OF EPIDEMIOLOGICAL FEATURES OF STDS AND APPLICATION OF MATHEMATIC MODEL TO THE STUDY OF TRENDS OF STDS.

作　　者：汤少开[1] 许斌[1] 李常兴[1] 

机构地区：[1]广州市皮肤病防治所医教科,广州510095

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2006年第1期81-83,共3页Modern Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的:探讨广州市近5年性病疫情流行特征,为政府部门制订预防控制措施提供科学依据。方法:对近5年性病疫情报告资料进行流行病学分析,并对近5年性病报告发病率进行曲线拟合,运用线性模型预测未来3年广州市性病发病率。结果:广州市近五年性病报告发病率逐年下降,但AIDS/HIV、胎传梅毒及三期梅毒发病数及发病率呈上升趋势;性病人群中老年患者人数增加。拟合的4种数学模型均有统计学意义,其中以直线模型为佳。经预测,未来3年性病发病率仍保持下降势态。结论:根据近几年性病流行特征及未来几年发病趋势,该市应及时调整性病工作防治策略及控制工作重点。Objective： To investigate the trends and epidemiological features of sexually transmitted diseases （STD） in Guangzhou in recent 5 years and to provide scientific basis for developing preventive strategies. Methods： STD case-reporting data collected from Guangzhou in recent 5 years were analyzed with curve fitting, and generalized linear model was used to predict the incidence of STDs in the future 3 years. Results： The reported incidence of STDs decreased year by year, but that of AIDS/HIV, congenital syphilis and late syphilis increased. Aged cases increased among the STDs cases. Four mathematic model fitted showed significant difference. The best one was straight line model. Incidence of STDs predicted to be a decline trends. Conclusion： The epidemiological feature of STDs in recent years and STDs trends of future years suggest a need for readjusting control strategies and local point.

关 键 词：性病 流行病学 预测 

分 类 号：R195.1[医药卫生—卫生统计学]