我国农产品出口规模影响因素的实证分析  

Positive research on influencing factors of China's agricultural products exportation

作　　者：赵一夫[1] 乔忠[1] 田志宏[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《中国农业大学学报》2005年第6期100-104,共5页Journal of China Agricultural University

基　　金：霍英东基金课题"中国农产品对外贸易的增长机制及政策体系研究(81079)"

摘　　要：为考察不同因素对我国农产品出口规模的影响程度,针对近10年我国农产品出口规模的变动特征,采用恒定市场份额模型(CMS)对我国农产品出口规模变动的影响因素进行了实证分析。结果表明:我国农产品总体出口规模增长主要得益于世界农产品进口总额的增长,产品竞争力的下降和市场结构分布不合理对农产品出口增长有阻碍作用;目前在日本等主要出口市场上,农产品竞争力的不断提高对我国出口规模的增长有显著的推动作用。According to the characters of China＇ s agricultural products trade in recent ten years, the constant marketshare model was used to analyze the influencing factors of China＇s agricultural products exportation. As showed in the conclusion, the increasing of China＇s agricultural products export mainly results from the enlargement of international import markets, to the contrary, the change of agricultural products competitiveness and markets distribution lags the increasing in the period. Meanwhite, on the important target market such as Japan, agricultural products competitiveness greatly and positively affects China＇ s export scale. It is apparent that the research can be an important and objective reference of enacting policy of how to improve China＇ s agricultural products export.

关 键 词：农产品 出口规模 影响因素 实证分析 

分 类 号：F746.2[经济管理—国际贸易]