活动断裂带构造变形定量分析  

QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS FOR TECTONIC DEFORMATION ON ACTIVE RUPTURE ZONES

作　　者：江在森[1] 牛安福[2] 王敏[1] 黎凯武[1] 方颖[1] 张希[3] 张晓亮[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地震预测研究所,中国北京100036 [2]中国地震台网中心,中国北京100036 [3]中国地震局第二监测中心,中国西安710054

出　　处：《地震学报》2005年第6期610-619,共10页Acta Seismologica Sinica

基　　金：科技部社会公益研究重点项目(2004DIA3J01O)和国家"十五"重点科技攻关项目(2004BA601B01-02-01)资助.

摘　　要：为了把较高空间分辨率区域的GPS观测资料用于强震地点预测,提出了活动断裂带 构造变形定量分析方法．该方法主要通过沿断裂带主断层线两侧划分若干形变单元,求解各 单元的几何变形和相对错动参数等,定量估算断裂带各分段滑动及应变速率;进一步基于断 裂带整体变形的协调性,确定可能存在的异常段及其性质和程度．利用1991—2001年GPS 速度场资料对川滇块体东边界带的实例分析显示,则木河—小江断裂的冕宁—宁南—东川— 带,为主断层活动相对闭锁而左旋剪应变积累速度较高的异常段．On the basis of the regional GPS data with a higher spatial resolution, we present a quantitative analysis method for tectonic deformation of active rupture zones in order to predict the location of forthcoming great earthquakes. Firstly we divide the main fault area into certain deformation units; then derive the geometric deformation and relative dislocation parameters of each unit; and finally quantitatively estimate the slip and strain rates in each segment of the rupture zone. Furthermore, by comparing the consistency of deformation in all segments of the whole rupture zone, we can determine the possible anomalous segments as well as their properties and amplitudes. In analyzing the east boundaries of Sichuan-Yunnan block with reference to the GPS velocity data in the period of 1991-2001, we have discovered that the Mianning-Ningnan-Dongchuan segment on the Zemuhe-Xiaojiang fault zone is relatively locked and the left-lateral shear strain rate here is higher.

关 键 词：活动断裂带 构造变形 GPS 强震地点预测 

分 类 号：P315.2[天文地球—地震学]