中国能源需求的结构突变研究  

Research on the Structural Break of Energy Demand of China

作　　者：储慧斌[1] 李科[1] 马超群[1] 周四清[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学工商管理学院,湖南长沙410082

出　　处：《系统工程》2005年第11期116-121,共6页Systems Engineering

基　　金：新世纪人才计划资助项目(NCET-04-0771)

摘　　要：中国的能源需求是理论界研究的一个热点。本文基于结构突变理论,研究了数据生成过程中的几种不同结构突变模式,并对结构突变的单位根过程和结构突变的趋势稳定过程给出了不同结构突变模式的检验方法。文章还对中国能源需求的数据生成过程进行了实证研究。我们的研究表明,中国能源需求的数据生成过程是带有结构突变的趋势稳定过程,这说明中国能源需求将会沿着确定的均衡增长路径平稳增长。The energy demand of China is the hotspot in theory research. Based on the theory of structural breaks, we studied on the different structural breaks models in DGP, and proposed its test methods, which can distinguish unit root with structural breaks from trend stabilization with structural breaks. An empirical study for testing for DGP with a structural break in the time series of energy demand of China was provided. The result indicates that the DGP of energy demand of China is trend stabilization with a structural break, and the energy demand of China will increase reposefully with statuesque increase route determinately.

关 键 词：能源需求 数据生成过程 结构突变 

分 类 号：TV212[水利工程—水文学及水资源]