盐城獐种群生存力的初步分析  

A PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF POPULATION VIABILITY FOR CHINESE WATER DEER(HYDROPOTES INERMIS)LIVED IN YANCHENG

作　　者：徐宏发[1] 陆厚基[1] 

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学生物学系

出　　处：《兽类学报》1996年第2期81-88,共8页Acta Theriologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金

摘　　要：本文采用Ｖｏｒｔｅｘ６．０计算机程序对盐城獐（Ｈｙｄｒｏｐｔｅｓｉｎｅｒｍｉｓ）种群的生存力进行了分析。结果表明：若无狩猎和海潮侵袭的影响，在能容纳５００头獐的栖息地中，盐城獐可长期生存。如狩猎死亡率达５％和１０％，拥有１００～２００头獐的种群分别在３２～５０年和１５～２７年内灭绝率超过５％；拥有３００～５００头的现存种群分别在９０～９５年和２９～４２年内灭绝率超过５％。在有海潮侵袭的栖息地中，不管现存种群多大，在未来２５年左右的时间内种群灭绝率大于５％，在５０年内种群绝灭的可能性超过５０％。根据该地的实际情况，建议在无海潮侵袭的堤内选择至少能容纳２００头獐的栖息地和在相临的堤外选择能容纳５００头獐的栖息地建立保护区，才能保证盐城獐种群长期生存。Population viability analysis for Chinese water deer lived in Yancheng was conducted by usins Vortex 6.0.The simulation model shows that the population of Chinese water deer can survival long-term if no effect of tide and poaching.At 5% mortality by poaching,the probability of extinction will be over 5% for 100～200 individuals'population in the future of 90 years.At 10% mortality by poachins,the probability of extinction will be over 5% in the future of 15～25 years for 100～200 individuals'population and 40 years for 300～500 individuals'population.At low tide mortality level,the probability of extinction will be over 5% in the future 15～23 years for 100～200individuals'population and 30～37 years for 300～500 indivuduals'population.Athigh tide mortality level,the probability of extinction will be over 5% in the future 12 ～16 years for 100～200 individuals'population and 19～27 years for 300～500 individuals'population.Under the pressure of the effect of tide with poaching,the viability of water deer is very weak.The population of water deer lived in Yancheng will go extinction within a few of decades.A suggestion for protecting Chinese water deer was provided in the paper.Two kinds of habitat need to protect the population according to the suggestion.The area of one habitat is large enough to host 200 deer and have no tide and poaching mortality,other one can host 500 deer and allow 15% and 10% tide mortality,but no poaching mortality.This metapopulation including two populations can survival long-term if 10% individuals of population migrate each other every year.

关 键 词：獐 种群灭绝 生存力 分析 

分 类 号：S865.91[农业科学—野生动物驯养]