失业保险是否会造成长期失业?运用生存模型对青岛市失业者的经验研究  

Does Unemployment Insurance Boosts Longer Unemployment Duration? Evidences From Qingdao

作　　者：马驰骋[1] 王元月[1] 李然 刘振宇 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学经济学院 [2]青岛市劳动与社会保障局,青岛266071

出　　处：《南方经济》2006年第1期48-60,共13页South China Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70473084)

摘　　要：西方关于失业保险与失业持续时间关系的理论和经验研究表明,失业保险的存在会延长失业者的失业持续时间,造成长期失业。本文应用我国青岛市失业登记数据,对青岛市失业保险如何影响失业持续时间进行了经验研究。通过对失业持续时间的寿命表估计和Cox回归发现,青岛市享受失业保险者的失业持续时间要明显长于不享受失业保险者,并且在享受失业保险者当中,享受24个月失业保险者要比享受12个月失业保险者有着更长的失业持续时间;另外,失业者的再就业风险率在失业期内是动态变化的。这说明,我国的失业保险制度同样对失业者的再就业行为具有负激励效应,延长了失业持续时间。Previous studies find that unemployment insurance （UI） boost longer unemployment duration. By employing Life- table method and Cox proportional hazard model, and data from Qingdao government, we find that the UI receivers have a longer unemployment duration than the non-receivers, and the UI receivers with 24 months have a longer unemployment duration than the UI receivers with 12 months. We also find that the hazard rate of re-employment is dynamic in unemployment duration. In conclusion, Chinese UI China has important impact on job search behavior and boosts longer unemployment duration.

关 键 词：失业保险 失业持续时间 再就业风险率 

分 类 号：F840.61[经济管理—保险] F241.4