长江河口年平均流量的灰色拓扑预测与趋势分析  

Analysis of the dynamic trend and the grey topology prediction of annual mean runoff in Yangtze estuary

作　　者：左书华[1] 李九发[1] 万新宁[1] 应铭[1] 沈焕庭[1] 

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学河口海岸国家重点实验室,上海200062

出　　处：《水力发电》2005年第12期19-21,共3页Water Power

基　　金：国家973计划项目(2002CB412403);国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(4023101)

摘　　要：以大通站为例,根据1953～2002年年平均流量时间序列进行统计特征分析,其具有多年变化相对稳定的特点,各年的年平均流量值围绕着多年平均值上下波动,序列变差系数Cv为0.146,同时也反映了其年均流量序列年际变化小;丰水年很少连续出现,枯水年中75%是以连续2年的形式出现的,平水年的最长持续时间可达4年。以大通站1961～1990年30年来的实测径流量资料为依据,运用灰色拓扑预测方法建立了一组GM(1,1)拓扑预测模型群,对其径流量进行预测,预测结果的相对误差值较小。采用Kendall秩相关检验对大通站年平均流量1953～2002年时间序列进行趋势检验,检验结果表明,大通站年平均流量存在一定的增加趋势,但趋势不显著。According to the mean annual discharge at the Datong hydrological station in the period from 1953 to 2002, the statistics showed steady-going characteristic comparatively to the variation of the time-serles. The flood years seldom occur in succession, 75% of the dry years take place every two years, and the smooth years can last four years at maximum. Based on fifty years data of the Datong station, the modeling method of grey system theory and topology forecast model are used to establish a forecast model for predicting the annual mean runoff and its result was more satisfied. To study on the time-series of Datong station from 1953 to 2002 with Kendall method, the results showed that the annual nmoff has indistinctive increasing trend.

关 键 词：灰色系统理论 CM(1 1)模型 拓扑的预测 年平均径流量 趋势分析 大通站 长江 

分 类 号：N941.5[自然科学总论—系统科学] TV121.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]