基于重点抽样法的固定式平台结构风险评价研究  

A Study on Risk Assessment of Structure Failure for Fixed Platforms Based on the Importance Sampling Procedure

作　　者：李晓冬 刘德辅 吕秀艳 牟善军[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国海样大学海洋防灾研究所,山东青岛266003 [2]中国石化青岛安全工程研究院,山东青岛266071

出　　处：《中国海洋大学学报（自然科学版）》2006年第1期161-167,共7页Periodical of Ocean University of China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50379051)资助

摘　　要：在建立海上油气设施的风险分析系统时,对由台风引发的极端海况造成的结构失效进行风险评估是1个十分重要的问题。为了建立实用可靠的风险评价方法,本文使用基于重点抽样法的随机模拟技术,对渤海海域CB12-C井组平台结构进行了全概率法失效概率计算,并在此基础上进行了平台结构的风险评价。该方法是1种适用于固定式海洋平台的定量风险评价方法,充分考虑了平台结构风险分析过程中各种不确定性的影响,极大提高了定量风险评价结果的可靠性。Risk assessment of platform structure failure caused by combined effects of typhoon induced extreme sea conditions is one of the most important problems in the establishment of quantitative risk analysis systems for offshore oil engineering projects. In this paper, in order to establish a practical and reliable risk assessing system of platform structures, a stochastic simulation technique based on the importance sampling procedure is used to estimate the structure failure probability for CB12-C platform in the Bohai Sea and consequent analysis is also made. The method presents a new technique for quantitative risk assessment of fixed platforms, in which the uncertainty in the risk assessing procedure is considered, so the quantitative result of risk assessment is more reliable.

关 键 词：固定式平台 风险评价 重点抽样法 失效概率 

分 类 号：P753[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程] U656.6[天文地球—海洋科学]