中国气温变化研究最新进展  

Recent Progresses in Studies of Regional Temperature Changes in China

作　　者：任国玉[1,2] 初子莹[1,2] 周雅清[1,3] 徐铭志[1,2] 王颖[4] 唐国利[1,2] 翟盘茂[1,2] 邵雪梅[5] 张爱英[6] 陈正洪[7] 郭军[8] 刘洪滨[1,2] 周江兴[1,2] 赵宗慈[1,2] 张莉[1,2] 白虎志[9] 刘学峰 唐红玉[11] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局气候研究开放实验室 [2]国家气候中心,北京100081 [3]山西省晋中市气象局,晋中030600 [4]中国气象局国家气象信息中心气候资料室 [5]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 [6]山东省气象局气象中心 [7]湖北省气象局气象科学技术研究所 [8]天津市气象局气候中心 [9]甘肃省气象局兰州中心气象台 [10]河北省气象局气候中心 [11]青海省气象局青海气象台

出　　处：《气候与环境研究》2005年第4期701-716,共16页Climatic and Environmental Research

基　　金：国家"十五"科技攻关课题"全球与中国气候变化的检测和预测"(2001BA611B-01)

摘　　要：总结了“十五”攻关课题有关中国温度变化研究的若干进展。在资料质量控制和序列非均一性检验及订正的基础上,更新了中国地面近50年、100年和1000年气温序列。研究表明,不论是近54年还是近100年全国年平均地面气温升高趋势一般比原来分析结果表明的要强,分别达到0·25℃/10a和0·08℃/10a。中国现代增暖最明显的地区包括东北、华北、西北和青藏高原北部,最显著的季节在冬季和春季。近50多年中国近地面气候变暖主要是平均最低气温明显上升的结果,全国范围内极端最低气温也显著升高,而极端最高气温升高不多。中国与温度相关的极端气候事件强度和频率一般呈降低趋势或稳定态势。研究发现,城市化因素对中国地面平均气温记录具有显著影响,但在现有的全国和区域平均温度变化分析中一般没有考虑,因此需要在将来的研究中给予密切关注。在增温明显的华北地区,1961~2000年间城市化引起的年平均气温增加值达到0·44℃,占全部增温的38%,城市化引起的增温速率为0·11℃/10a。中国其他地区的增温趋势中也或多或少反映出增强的城市热岛效应影响。20世纪60年代初以来中国对流层中下层温度变化趋势不明显,仅为0·05℃/10a,比地面气温变化小一个量级;对流层上层和平流层底层年平均温度呈明显下降趋势,变化速率分别为-0·17℃/10a和-0·22℃/10a;整个对流层平均温度呈微弱下降趋势。中国对流层温度与地面气温变化趋势存在明显的差异,但这种差异在20世纪80年代初以后趋于减小。近千年来中国地面气温变化史上可能确存在“中世纪温暖期”和“小冰期”等特征性气候阶段,但“中世纪温暖期”的温暖程度似乎没有过去认为的那样明显。从全国范围看,11世纪末和13世纪中的温暖程度可能均超过了20世纪30~40年代暖期,表明20世纪的增暖可能并非史无前例A brief summary of some recent major research findings of temperature changes over China is made in this paper. The findings come mainly from studies on observed changes of surface air temperature of the last 55 years, 100 years and 1 000 years, and of free atmospheric temperature of the last 50 years, on attribution of surface air temperature change to anthropogenic forcing, and on effect of rapid urbanization on site temperature records and regional average temperature series. Based on a data set of national basic and reference stations, which have been quality controlled and adjusted for in homogeneity dominantly induced by relocation of stations, updated surface air temperature time series of the past 55 years and 100 years are established. The new temperature series show a generally more rapid warming than those obtained before, with the rates of change of annual mean temperature reaching 0. 22 ℃/10 a. and 0.08 ℃/10 a respectively for the past 55 year and 100 years. The current warming is more significant in Northeast China, North China, Northwest China and the Tibetan Plateau, and the largest increase in temperature occurs in wintertime and springtime. The warming of the last 55 years is the result of more obvious rising of mean minimum temperature. The same change has happened for the country averaged annual extreme low temperature, while the annual extreme high temperature only experiences an insignificant rise. The frequency of temperature-related extreme events such as cold wave, cool summer, hot days generally tends to decrease or to be unchanged in the country as a whole. It is found, however, that significant effects of urbanization on recorded trends of temperature for single stations as well as for region averaged temperature series exist in a few regions investigated so far. In North China which experiences the most remarkable warming in the country, increase of annual mean temperature induced by urbanization for national basic and reference stations reaches 0.44 ℃ in period of 1961-2000, wi

关 键 词：气温变化 城市化影响 高空温度 中世纪温暖期 中国大陆 

分 类 号：P468[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]