近54年中国地面气温变化  

Changes of Surface Air Temperature in China During 1951—2004

作　　者：任国玉[1,2] 徐铭志[1,2] 初子莹[1,2] 郭军[3] 李庆祥[4] 刘小宁[4] 王颖[4] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局气候研究开放实验室 [2]国家气候中心,北京100081 [3]天津市气象局气候服务中心 [4]中国气象局国家气象信息中心气候资料室

出　　处：《气候与环境研究》2005年第4期717-727,共11页Climatic and Environmental Research

基　　金：国家"十五"科技攻关项目课题2001BA611B-01

摘　　要：采用国家基准气候站和基本气象站地面月平均气温资料,在严格质量控制和非均一性订正的基础上,分析了1951年以来中国大陆地区近地表年和季节平均气温演化的时间与空间特征。结果表明,我国近54年来年平均地表气温变暖幅度约为1.3℃,增温速率接近0.25℃/10a,比全球或半球同期平均增温速率高得多。全国大范围增暖主要发生在近20余年。气温变化的季节差异和空间特征与前人分析结论基本一致,冬季增温速率高达0.39℃/10a,春季为0.28℃/10a,秋季0.20℃/10a,夏季增温速率最小,但也达到0.15℃/10a。我国20世纪80年代初期开始的明显增暖主要表现在冷季,但进入90年代以来夏季增暖也日趋明显。从区域上看,中国大陆地区最明显的增温发生在北方和青藏高原地区,而西南的四川盆地和云贵高原北部仍维持弱的降温趋势。值得提出的是,作者给出的结果尚未考虑城镇化对地面气温观测记录的影响。A data set from 726 stations was used to analyze surface air temperature change in China's Mainland. The data set has been processed more carefully, and the main in-homogeneities existing in the monthly mean temperature data have been checked and corrected. The widely accepted procedures for creating area-averaged climatic time series and for calculating linear trend have been used. Analyses have been made for annual and monthly mean temperature. Annual mean surface air temperature in China's Mainland as a whole rose by about 1.3 ℃ for the last 54 years, with a warming rate of about 0. 25℃/10 a. The warming is more rapid than the average values of the world and the Northern Hemisphere. The most evident warming occurred in winter and spring as expected. Northeast China, North China and Northwest China experienced more significant warming in terms of annual mean temperature, while a cooling trend for southwestern China reported in earlier studies is still continuing. Summer mean temperature in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River also decreased in the last 55 years. We have also tentatively analyzed the possible causes for the observed change in temperature.

关 键 词：地面气温 气候变化 全球变暖 区域气候 

分 类 号：P468[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]