近千年温度变化研究的回顾与展望  

An Overview of the Research on Temperature Variability of the Last 1000 Years

作　　者：初子莹[1] 任国玉[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,国家气候中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气候与环境研究》2005年第4期818-825,共8页Climatic and Environmental Research

基　　金：国家"十五"科技攻关项目课题"全球与中国气候变化的检测和预测"(2001BA611B-01);中国气象局气候研究开放实验室开放基金

摘　　要：近年来,年代到世纪尺度气候变化研究在国际地球科学领域受到高度重视,而近千年左右大范围区域平均温度序列的重建和分析工作尤其令人瞩目,我国的相关研究也已获得了若干重要成果。作者从过去千年温度变化概况、机制及相关研究资料和方法等方面,对国内外近千年温度变化研究做了初步回顾和展望。In the background of global warming, the studies of natural climate variability on decadal to century time scales, one of the most active fields of the current global change research, have been remarkably emphasized for the last decade. This situation can be felt in China as well. Some progresses in the studies are obvious both in China and abroad, but there are still a lot of problems facing the paleo-science community. Although there have been some preliminary reconstructed results of regional temperature series in China, the reliability of the results needs to be further enhanced. It would be necessary to tackle such problems as the poor quality of the site reconstruction, the sparseness of the proxy-data sites and the incomplete methodology of region-averaged temperature reconstruction.

关 键 词：气候变化 古气候 温度序列 

分 类 号：P468[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]