我国过去千年地表温度序列的初步重建  

A Preliminary Reconstruction of Mean Surface Air Temperature over the Last 1000 Years in China

作　　者：初子莹[1] 任国玉[1] 邵雪梅[2] 刘洪滨[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京100081 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [3]中国气象局国家气候中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气候与环境研究》2005年第4期826-836,共11页Climatic and Environmental Research

基　　金：国家"十五"科技攻关项目课题"全球与中国气候变化的检测和预测"(2001BA611B-01);中国气象局气候研究开放实验室开放基金

摘　　要：通过对器测温度资料与代用温度资料的研究,对中国过去1 000年的地表温度序列进行了初步重建.重建主要以树轮年表资料为基础,采用不同方法分别合成具有年分辨率的400年与1 000年西部温度序列,以及具有10年分辨率的400年全国温度序列和具有30年分辨率的1 000年全国温度序列.全国温度重建结果表明,中国在1000～1310年间表现出了与欧洲中世纪暖期相对应的温暖阶段,但该暖期在中国西部地区反映得并不明显;而14到19世纪的小冰期则在所有序列中均有显著表现;19世纪中期至上世纪80年代升温显著,但并未超过中世纪暖期水平.作者也讨论了重建序列的不确定性,以及重建序列与前人研究结果的异同.Twenty seven tree-ring chronologies from 7 individual sites in western and Northeasternern China, which have been proved good in quality and being capable of indicating seasonal temperature variation at regional scale, are collected and used to reconstruct regional annual mean temperature series. Combined with the winter-half- year temperature series in eastern China using historical documents, area averaged annual mean temperature anomalies with time resolutions of 10-30 years over the last 1 000 years for entire China are also reconstructed. Variability and amplitudes of cold-warm changes in China over the last 1 000 years are evident. Annual mean temperature of China is generally warmer from A. D. 1 000 to A. D. 1310 with a relatively cool episode in the 13th century, and it is significantly colder from A. D. 1310 to 1910 with minimum anomalies occurring in the 15th, 17th and 19th centuries respectively. Modern warm period beginning from the end of the 19th century looks unusual in terms of the 1 000- year variation of annual mean temperature, but it is not significantly warmer than the earlier warm period or medieval warm period （MWP）. Some differences between the series of western and eastern China have been detected, and there seems no significant warming during the MWP in the western temperature series. We also compare the present temperature series with those obtained by other researchers.

关 键 词：气候变化 古气候 温度序列 中世纪暖期 小冰期 

分 类 号：P468[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]