气候变化国家评估报告(Ⅰ):中国气候变化的历史和未来趋势  

National Assessment Report of Climate Change (I): Climate change in China and its future trend

作　　者：丁一汇[1] 任国玉[1] 石广玉[2] 宫鹏 郑循华[2] 翟盘茂[1] 张德二[1] 赵宗慈[1] 王绍武[4] 王会军[2] 罗勇[1] 陈德亮[1] 高学杰[1] 戴晓苏[5] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局国家气候中心,北京100081 [2]中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京100029 [3]南京大学,江苏南京210093 [4]北京大学物理学院,北京100871 [5]中国气象局科技发展司,北京100081

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2006年第1期3-8,F0004,共7页Climate Change Research

基　　金："十五"国家科技攻关计划"重大环境问题对策与关键支撑技术研究"(2003BA614A-15)资助

摘　　要：中国的气候变化与全球变化有相当的一致性,但也存在明显差别。在全球变暖背景下,近100 a 来中国年平均地表气温明显增加,升温幅度比同期全球平均值略高。近100 a和近50 a的降水量变化趋势不明显,但1956年以来出现了微弱增加的趋势。近50 a来中国主要极端天气气候事件的频率和强度也出现了明显的变化。研究表明,中国的CO2年排放量呈不断增加趋势,温室气体正辐射强迫的总和是造成气候变暖的主要原因。对21世纪气候变化趋势做出的预测表明:未来20-100 a,中国地表气温增加明显,降水量也呈增加趋势。The climate change in China shows a considerable similarity to the global change, however, there still exist significant differences between them. In the context of the global wanning, the annual mean surface temperature has significantly increased during the past 100 years, with slightly greater magnitude of temperature increase than the globe. The precipitation trends during the last 50 and 100 years are not obvious ,but since 1956 it has assumed a weak increasing trend. The frequency and intensity of main extreme weather and climate events have also assumed significant change. The research has shown that the CO2 emission in China has continuously increased and the sum of positive radiative forcings produced by greenhouse gases is responsible for climate wanning. The projection of climate change for the 21st century has indicated that in the future 20-100 years, the surface temperature will continue to increase and precipitation also has an increasing trend.

关 键 词：中国气候变化 极端事件 温室气体 气溶胶 辐射强迫 气候预估 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]