见解的独到性与预示性——关于我国证券分析师分析能力的实证研究  

The Distinction and the Indication of the Opinions ——A Empirical Study on the Capability of the Financial Analysts in China

作　　者：胡奕明[1] 沈光明[1] 岑江华[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学安泰管理学院

出　　处：《中国会计评论》2005年第2期287-308,共22页China Accounting Review

基　　金：财政部2003年重点会计科研课题(批准号2003KJB006)"金融市场的约束功效与会计信息披露适合度研究";教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目课题(批准号02JAZJF630004)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：本文通过对我国证券分析师的年报分析文章的研究,利用分析师得出的定性的褒贬结论,考察了分析师是否具有独到见解,以及分析师的这些结论是否具有预示性。研究结果表明,我国分析师已具备了一定的分析能力,但没有很强的证据表明他们有自己的"独到"见解。分析师在得出褒贬结论时关注的信息不同、使用的方法不同,而且在下贬义结论时,分析师倾向于使用确凿的信息和灵活的分析方法,但未发现分析师对不同行业、失败和非失败的公司进行分析时在关注的信息、使用的方法上存在显著差异。分析师下结论还比较依赖审计师的意见,对被分析公司的当前会计业绩也非常倚重。尽管如此,研究表明,这些定性结论已具有一定的预示性。This study examines whether the analysts＇ opinions or their conclusions are distinctive and indicative to the market, based on the published articles written by the analysts on the annual reports of the listed companies. The opinions are qualitative judgment of the analysts. The evidence indicates that the analysts have certain capability in the security analysis. But no strong evidence are found to support that they have quite specific ideas. The analysts would do their good or bad judgment with different information concerned and different methods used, and they would tend to use the methods more flexible and the information more explicit when they do the bad judgment. No apparent differences in information concerned and methods used in the analysis for the different industries, and failed/normal firms are found. The opinions of the analysts are quite dependent on the auditors＇ opinions and the present performance of the analyzed firms. However, the study indicates that the qualitative judgment of the analysts is valuable for prediction on the future performance of the listed companies.

关 键 词：证券分析师 信息关注广度 信息关注深度 独到见解 预示性 

分 类 号：F832.51[经济管理—金融学]