山东省粮食生产发展态势研究  

Studies on Grain Production Development Situation of Shandong Province

作　　者：葛颜祥[1] 梁丽娟[1] 李平英[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东农业大学三农问题研究中心,山东泰安271018

出　　处：《山东农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2005年第4期61-67,共7页Journal of Shandong Agricultural University(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：本研究得到了山东农业大学三农问题研究中心基金项目"山东省粮食产业发展态势研究"的支持。

摘　　要：建国后山东的粮食生产共出现十一次大的波动,其波动上升期长,波动幅度大。除了农业技术外,山东省粮食生产的主要影响因素是土地投入、化肥投入和资金投入。考虑人口的增长和耕地面积的减少,以省内粮食自给率80％作为安全标准,2010年山东粮食生产下限为3072万吨,至少要保证550万公顷的播种面积。在此基础上,确定的“底限”粮食生产方案是:小麦生产安排方案至少270万公顷,玉米生产安排方案至少215万公顷。同时对“藏粮于仓”与“藏粮于地”问题,对如何利用市场手段引导粮食生产以及如何发挥地区比较优势进行了讨论。After the founding of the nation, there are 11 big fluctuations about the grain production of Shandong province, the ascendant of fluctuations is long, and the margin of fluctuation is big. Besides the agricultural technology, the major effect factors of grain production are the land investment, the chemical fertilizer investment and the fund investment. Considered the growth of population and the reduction of cultivated area, taking 80 % for the security standard of self -sufficient rate, in 2010 year, the lower limit grain production of Shandong is 30.72 million tons, and 5.5 million hectares sown areas must be guaranteed. In this foundation, 'the lower limit' grain production plan is: the arrangement plan of wheat production is 2.7 million hectares, the arrangement plan of corn production is at least 2. 15 million hectares. Meanwhile, ' the Tibet grain to the warehouse' and 'the Tibet grain to the cultivated land', how to use the market method to guide grain production, and how to display the local comparison superiority are discussed .

关 键 词：山东省 粮食生产 发展态势 粮食安全 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]