国际油价走势回眸与2006年展望  

Review of the Global Oil Price Fluctuations in 2005 and Projections for 2006

作　　者：蒋福康[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石化股份有限公司石油化工科学研究院

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2006年第1期22-24,共3页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：过去两年,油价的持续攀升,原因来自多个方面,但主要有以下四大影响因素:一是全球石油供求出现不平衡;二是全球石油炼制能力不足;三是突发事件和中东地区恐怖活动的影响;四是国际游资炒作。随着世界经济增速的减缓,全球石油需求的降温,以及勘探开发与炼油设施投资的增加,未来全球原油供需总体将保持平衡。就国际舆论而言,对2006年国际油价走势持继续上涨观点者,主要是从供给角度推测,认为对原油开采的投资不能保证维持必要的备用产能,原油市场将保持供给偏紧的状态;持油价将回落和下跌观点者则是从市场投机角度出发,认为投机性因素造成缺乏真实的需求,油价将下跌至35美元／桶的水平。笔者认为,在2006年,石油供应多元化,可望使石油生产能力提高;能源需求多元化,可望使石油需求增长减缓;石油资本多元化,可望使投机因素对油价的影响减弱;战略石油库存增加,可望使市场增添信心。The continued oil price spike over the past two years is primarily attributed to the imbalance between oil supply and demand in the global context, global shortage in petroleum refining, impact from emergencies and terrorist attacks in the Middle East and speculation by the global energy investors. The continued high oil price might trigger diminished petroleum demand and price. The worldwide economic slowdown, coupled with the decreasing oil demand and increasing investment in oil exploration and development and refining facilities construction, will cause the global crude oil supply and demand to come back to a balance, in future. Those speculating on a continuing spike in the global oil price in 2006, project so from the supply perspective, reckoning that the investment in crude oil exploration cannot guarantee sufficient backup production capacity and the crude oil will remain undersupplied. Those estimating that the oil price will slip down, project so from the perspective of market speculation, thinking that the actual demand is much less than assumed and the oil price per barrel will go down to US$35. The author holds the view that the diversified oil supplies in 2006 will step up the oil production capacity; the diversification in energy demand will drag down the increase in the oil demand; the diversification in oil capital will diminish the impact upon oil price by speculation; and the increase in the strategic oil reserve will improve market confidence.

关 键 词：国际油价 影响因素 趋势预测 多元化 石油供应 能源需求 石油资本 战略库存 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济]