新疆耕地变化及驱动力分析  

Variation of Cultivated Land and Its Driving Forces in Xinjiang

作　　者：蔡文春[1] 杨德刚[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2006年第2期144-149,共6页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：中国科学院知识创新方向性项目(KZCX1-08);中国科学院知识创新重要方向资助

摘　　要：利用1949～2003年的统计和普查数据，分析探讨了新疆54年来耕地数量变化趋势、变化速度、区域差异及驱动因素。结果表明：新疆耕地数量经历了迅速上升→波动→下降→回升的变化历程；耕地变化区域差异显著；人口增长、经济发展和农业科技进步是影响新疆耕地动态变化的三类主要动因，政策因素是影响耕地变化的间接驱动力；通过模型计算，人类行为对耕地变化的影响尤其显著。并对研究结果应用GIS进行了空间表达。研究内容和分析结论对新疆农业可持续发展具有重要意义。According to statistical and survey data from 1949 to 2003, the trend , speed, regional differences and driving factors of cultivated land in Xinjiang during the last 54 years are analysed. The results indicate：（1）The change of cultivated land experienced such phases as dramatic increase, fluctuation, decrease then increase. （2） From 1949 to 1960 the annual dynamic of cultivated land per person was 4. 6%,then decreased as 2% and regional differences of cultivated land were very notable. （3） As a result of the principal component analysis, the eleven driving forces variables affecting cultivated land changes were analyzed which could be classified into three types,i, e. , development of economy,growth of population, advancement in agricultural technology,and the government policies was the indirect forcing. The calculation with models reveal that the artificial factors are the most significant to the change of cultivated lands. The results were described by GIS spatial analysis. The analytical results and conclusion of this paper will provide scientific base for sustainable agriculture development in Xinjiang.

关 键 词：耕地变化 驱动力 新疆 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]