浙江省滑波、泥石流多发区气象预警研究  

Study of Meteorological Forecasting and Warning for Landslide and Debris Flow in Zhejiang Province

作　　者：杜惠良 钮学新 殷坤龙[3] 谢剑明[3] 刘礼领[3] 

机构地区：[1]浙江省气象台,浙江杭州310017 [2]浙江省气象科学研究所,浙江杭州310017 [3]中国地质大学,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《高原气象》2006年第1期151-158,共8页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：浙江省科技厅重大攻关项目"浙江省突发性地质灾害预警预报系统及应用示范"和重点项目"浙江省暴雨预报系统研究"课题共同资助

摘　　要：在对浙江最主要的突发性地质滑坡、泥石流子体与降雨量的统计分析后,提出了有效降雨量概念,通过统计分析,获得了计算有效降雨量关系式和四个多发区的临界有效降雨量。针对滑坡、泥石流,应用MM5中尺度预报模式进行本地化,并结合卫星和雷达的客观雨量预报方法。三种客观预报雨量的方法互相补充。经2003年和2004年试报,对雨量预报和滑坡、泥石流预测有较好的效果。Based on statistic analyses between landslide, debris flow and precipitation, the efficient precipitation which will cause the landslide and debris flow events was given. Then we got efficient precipitation formula, critical efficient precipitation in four high-risk zone for landslide or debris flow in the province. To better forecast landslide and debris flow, we localized mesoscale model, the well-known MM5, and the nowcasting technique of satellite and radar also were utilized. The three methods could supplement each other. After testing daily forecast during the period of 2003--2004, the result showed that the method has a quite good behavior in precipitation forecast and landslide, debris flow forecast.

关 键 词：滑坡 泥石流 有效降雨量 雨量定量预报 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学]