华南地区中尺度模式预报的初值影响分析  

IMPACT OF THE INITIALIZATION ON MESOSCALE MODEL PREDICTION IN SOUTH CHINA

作　　者：丁伟钰[1] 万齐林[1] 闫敬华[1] 黄燕燕[1] 陈子通[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所,广东广州510080

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2006年第1期10-17,共8页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：广东省攻关项目(2004B32601002);气象新技术推广项目(CMATG2005M17);国家973项目(2004CB18307);热带海洋气象研究基金"基于现代探测技术的热带同化技术研究"共同资助

摘　　要：基于GRAPES3D-Var同化系统,介绍了根据静力平衡关系由高度场的增量来计算温度场的增量的方法,并结合常规探空资料同化,针对影响华南地区的一次冷空气过程的个例,分析了常规观测资料对初始场的影响。采用GRAPES区域中尺度模式进行了控制试验和同化试验,观测资料的检验表明,资料同化对GRAPES中尺度模式预报有正面影响,初始时刻预报敏感性较大并且变化较快,靠近地面的低层预报敏感性较为复杂,常规探空资料对高层大气预报能力的提高相对于中低层较小。Based on the GRAPES 3D-Var system, this paper introduced a method to calculate the temperature increment by geopotential increment using the hydrostatic equilibrium equation. The impact of initialization is studied in the South China area during a course of cold wave by assimilating the sounding data. The control and assimilation experiments of GRAPES regional mesoscale model prediction are verified with observations. Results show that the assimilation of sounding data has positive impact on GRAPES regional mesoscale model. The initial forecast sensitivities are greater than later time and vary fast, the lower levels forecast sensitivity are more complex than the upper levels, and the sounding data assimilation can do little to improve the upper levels forecast while improving the lower and middle levels forecast much better.

关 键 词：GRAPES 3D-Var同化系统 中尺度模式 初值影响 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]