反事实研究:放松规制与中国航空网络演变  

Counterfactual Analysis: Deregulation and Changes of Aviation Network in China

作　　者：苏延芳[1] 肖兴志[2] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学公共管理学院,北京100084 [2]东北财经大学经济与社会发展研究院,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《财经研究》2006年第3期103-113,共11页Journal of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70203002)国家自然科学基金项目(批准号70203002)的阶段性成果之一。

摘　　要：文章通过美国航空网络的演变透视航空业的发展规律,预测中国航空网络的走势。文章首先回顾了美国航空规制放松的历史,而后引进理论模型:第一个模型是关于航空网络航线普及率的简单模型;第二个模型是FC网络和HS网络的成本比较。在FC网络和HS网络的进一步分析中,首先模拟分析网络外部性及运输成本以说明FC网络和HS网络的适用性,然后通过中国支线航空市场调查分析FC网络和HS网络在中国的现状,再引入反事实研究方法,最后是相关的政策建议。The rule of aviation industry is discussed in this paper through analyzing the evolvement of US aviation network, and the tendency of China aviation industry is predicted. First, the history of aviation deregulation in US is reviewed, and then two theoretical models are introduced, one is a simple model about air lines prevalence ratio in the aviation network, and the other is about the cost comparison between the FC network and the HS network. In the further analysis, the applicability of FC network and HS network are illustrated by using a simulated sample to compare the network externality and the transportation cost between FC and HS network, then the present situation of FC network and HS network in China is explored according to the market research of China regional aviation, after that, counterfactual method is discussed and relative policy suggestions are proposed in the end.

关 键 词：反事实研究方法 梅特卡夫法则 FC网络 HS网络 代码共享 普遍服务 

分 类 号：F511.0[经济管理—产业经济]