系统共因失效分析及其概率预测的离散化建模方法  

COMMON CAUSE FAILURE ANALYSIS AND DISCRETELY MODELING FOR SYSTEM PROBABILITY PREDICTION

作　　者：谢里阳[1] 周金宇[1] 李翠玲[1] 王学敏[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北大学机械工程与自动化学院,沈阳110004

出　　处：《机械工程学报》2006年第1期62-68,共7页Journal of Mechanical Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50275025)。

摘　　要：通过系统层的载荷-强度干涉分析,展示了零件可靠度(或失效概率)的属性、精细结构及其与载荷／强度分布特性之间的关系,分析了传统的零件可靠性干涉分析过程中发生的系统可靠性信息损失问题以及无法通过传统的零件可靠度参数构建一般系统(具有失效相关性的非独立失效系统)可靠性模型的原因。从数学原理方面探讨了载荷-强度作用机制和冗余系统存在“共因失效”这种失效相关性的原因和建立冗余系统共因失效概率模型的方法。最后,建立了能根据系统的有限失效数据预测系统任意阶失效概率的离散化的系统失效概率模型。Through a thoroughly analysis to system-level loadstrength interference relationship, the problems of information loss in the process of conventional component reliability analysis and modeling are discussed, as well as the reason why it is impossible to construct dependent system reliability model simply by means of component reliability parameter. Further more, the mechanism of common cause failure （CCF） of k/n（F） system is discussed. It is shown that the randomness of environment load is the ＂root cause＂ of common cause failures. CCF involves concepts, such as ＂root cause＂ and ＂coupling mechanism＂ which are interpreted mathematically from the viewpoint of random environment load bringing about failure dependency. Opinions about ＂inherent dependency＂, ＂additional dependency＂, ＂absolute CCF＂ and ＂relative CCF＂ are presented and discussed. At last, an approach is presented to develop discrete common cause failure probabilities model based on the loadstrength interference analysis of system-level.

关 键 词：冗余系统 其因失效 系统可靠性 失效概率 

分 类 号：TH122[机械工程—机械设计及理论] TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]